Gambling fact and gambling fiction

My latest Las Vegas Business Press column is an extended take on the issue of accuracy in gaming stats, brought on by the Andy Rooney commentary of a few weeks ago:

The gambling business is all about numbers. Whether it’;s a roulette table, a lottery or a low-stakes bingo game, it’s impossible to run without knowing exactly what’s coming in and what’s going out. Because states share gaming revenues through taxes, it’s in their interests to keep well informed about these numbers. For that reason, legal gambling is well documented.

So it’s disappointing, at the very least, when people talking about gambling insist on ignoring — or worse, making up — facts that are in the public domain.

via Las Vegas Business Press :: David G. Schwartz : Without numerical facts, gaming talk spreads fiction.

I don’t think that this is going away any time soon, but we can always hope.

Wynn points to the future

I’ve got a new Las Vegas Business Press column up, in which I discuss the historical context behind Wynn’s musings about moving to Macau.

Steve Wynn made headlines when he suggested he might consider moving the headquarters of Wynn Resorts Ltd. to Macau from Las Vegas. As always, Wynn's forthrightness points the way to a larger truth about the future of the casino industry.

Wynn Resorts is a Las Vegas success story. Since moving here in 1967 as a part-owner of the Frontier, Steve Wynn has been one of the city's prime movers.

He began making a mark in 1973, when he became the chief executive officer of the Golden Nugget, then a small downtown casino with no real distinction.

Wynn's aspirations outside of Las Vegas have always been an important piece of the puzzle.

via Las Vegas Business Press :: David G. Schwartz : When Wynn speaks, gaming listens.

I think that many of the so-called pundits have reacted more emotionally than rationally to Wynn lately, particularly since he’s become critical of the current administration, and that’s what’s driving some of the comments out there. We talked about this a little on the latest Vegas Gang.

Wynn’s political opinions and the possibility of his moving the headquarters of his company are, I think, two separate issues. It’s not like he’s threatening to go John Galt on us: he’s just saying that he might move more elements of Wynn Resorts to the city that is its top market. People give another prominent CEO grief for not living in Las Vegas, since that’s where the action is, and by this logic they should be demanding that Wynn spend more time in Macau.

The most fascinating thing about Wynn is that, like Jay Sarno, his career doesn’t have a single, predictable arc. If he did, he’d have just kept expanding the Golden Nugget or, at the very least, staying with that brand. Instead, you’ve had forays into Atlantic City, Mississippi, and Macau, with the sale of Mirage Resorts along the way. All the time, he was reacting to changing conditions. If things had gone differently in Atlantic City, he might not even have built the Mirage, or at the very least would have built it in Atlantic City, and casino history would be much different.

So it wouldn’t entirely surprise me if the next stage of Wynn’s career takes him in a completely different direction. It’s happened before and there’s no reason to think it won’t happen again.

AC needs more than mini-casinos

This isn’t the popular thing to say right now, but I’ve got real doubts about the AC mini-casino proposal. Here are my thoughts from the LV Business Press:

Both Atlantic City and Las Vegas have had a difficult recession of course, by definition no recession is easy. Atlantic City, however, has suffered much more due to increasing regional competition and that's triggered a not-so-profound re-evaluation of that city's casino industry.Atlantic City's casinos find themselves in a tough spot. Their regional monopoly, which once extended to the Mississippi River, now barely touches the Delaware. Pennsylvania will soon add table games and New York and Delaware are both considering expanding their casino industries. Gamblers, it would seem, are driving past more and more casinos on their way “down the shore.”

But in increasing numbers, they're not, which is the problem. The city's gaming revenues have fallen to 1997 numbers. Las Vegas, by comparison, has retreated only to 2004

via Las Vegas Business Press :: David G. Schwartz : Smaller casinos won’t fix what ails Atlantic City.

It’s worth saying that the most successful casinos in Atlantic City right now are the biggest ones (Borgata, Harrah’s). I’m just not seeing the ROI for something one-tenth of their size.

The article’s punch line makes it clear just how unrealistic I think the mini-casino=revival talk is.

More about the year of the penny

Here’s my latest from the Las Vegas Business Press, in which I continue to deconstruct the popularity of pennies:

When the year-end Nevada gaming revenue figures came out, two trends dominated the news: Gambling in general was down again in 2009, while baccarat play toward the end of the year showed a surprising spike. But one historic change went all but unnoticed — for slot machines, 2009 was the year of the penny.

Penny slots have been on the rise for several years, making an unforeseen comeback. Never plentiful in Nevada casinos, their numbers dipped so low in 1995 that Nevada regulators stopped including them as a separate category in their gaming revenue reports. In 2004, they reappeared on the revenue reports, with more than 12,000 of the machines in casinos statewide. Since then, they've added to their numbers every year, which is all the more impressive given that the overall number of slots has fallen. Last year, just less than one out of every four casino slots was a penny machine.

via Las Vegas Business Press :: David G. Schwartz : Pennywise or slot foolish? Casinos must decide.

At the end of the article, I hint at some of the possible downside of the increasing popularity of pennies–I might expand this into another article.

LVBP article

After what seems like months, I see that I’ve got another Business Press article available online:

Once, casinos threw huge parties to remind the community that they were a year older. Large cakes in the shape of the hotel were common, with showgirls gamely framing the desert in well-circulated publicity photographs. Casinos bought advertisements that trumpeted their age, frequently offering specials $5.55 prime rib on our fifth birthday to further drive home the message.

Today, casino managers are positively bashful when it comes to the age of their properties. They would no more throw a party with a giant cake replica of their casino than they would set all their machines to free-play. I'm not sure exactly when this change happened, but I'm certain that it did.

The question is why. Most likely, it's because of the accelerated product cycle in Las Vegas today: A five-year old resort is considered middle-aged, and a 20-year old one is practically a doddering codger if we're subscribing to the anthropomorphic fallacy and assigning human qualities to inanimate hunks of steel, concrete and glass. In that atmosphere, you don't want to draw attention to your age.

David G. Schwartz : Bellagio seems a bit bashful about turning 10.

It’s an elaboration of a blog post I made a few weeks ago–what a shocker. The deeper question is: how does the “agelessness” of Las Vegas casinos relate to broader American conceptions of growing old?

The poker lifestyle

What do extreme sports, golf, and poker have in common? A great deal, if my thoughts on the topic are to be believed. I develop this theory in this week’s column in the LVBP:

The emergence of poker as a lifestyle means that the game has become more than a game — it is a way of life, or at least a way of living.

In this way, poker might be best compared to golf or extreme sports, two “sports lifestyles” that, though they are usually lined to radically different demographics, aren’t that antithetical.

Both are relatively expensive recreational sports — neither a set of clubs nor a snowboard is exactly cheap. There are professionals in both: The PGA and LPGA and the athletes of ESPN’s X Games. And there are many fans of each — those who watch on television but never play.

But the vast number of those interested in both golfing and extreme sports (e.g. skateboard, motocross, surfing) straddle the line between fan and athlete, playing regularly (or not so regularly) and wearing clothes associated with the sport. They might put on a golf shirt for casual Friday or wear board shorts to the pool Saturday, but they are living the golf or surfing lifestyle as best they can.

Poker has evolved into a lifestyle ‘sport’

I think that because poker has broken through and become more a lifestyle than a mere game, the poker boom is here to stay. I’m probably going to be fleshing this out a great deal more for an extended piece somewhere, and I’ll keep you posted.

Of course, it would be really great if the arbiters of the new poker lifestyle decided that a 600-page book about the history of gambling was essential for leading the poker life.

New LVBP article is elementary

Well, it’s a few days old, but you can still read it in the Las Vegas Business Press. Here’s a tease:

It’s often said that college athletes get the star treatment because they are, well, stars. When 100,000 people pack a stadium to hear a talk on Joyce’s use of light and dark imagery in “The Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man”, they say, then English departments will get the acclaim — and funding — that football programs do.

Indeed, right here in Las Vegas, it’s plain to see that college sports are far more popular than academics. More than a decade removed from his stint as head coach of the Running Rebels, Jerry Tarkanian is still a public figure, even appearing in commercials. But what kind of name recognition does Wole Soyinka, a Nobel Laureate and true academic all-star, have among the general population? It’s doubtful you’ll see the acclaimed writer shilling used cars on your TV any time soon, because, despite his achievements, most people just don’t care.

Betting just might raise the profile of legitimate academics. If there is a line on a spelling bee — maybe the least useful test of intellect — imagine the kind of buzz that could be generated for college-level student achievement. How many students in PoliSci 102 will score over 90 on the final exam? What percentage of History 101 students will comprehend the professor’s explanation of the causes of the Civil War? The possibilities are endless.

Suddenly, the general public would have a reason to care about education (since preparing the next generation for the future is obviously not much of a draw). Organic chemistry and macroeconomics might elbow aside football and baseball as fan favorites. Academic departments could build huge arena/classrooms with the latest equipment. Maybe someone would finally discover Fermat’s Lost Theorem if there was an over/under on it.

Elementary, my dear Watson. Spelling that is

It’s another piece in the “modest proposal” vein, where I hope that by taking an idea to its logical conclusion, I can make people think about things in a different way. In this case, the idea is: what if people cared as much about education as they do about sports? I made the same point but hopefully a little better in a KNPR commentary that might have aired already.

You might remember a post a few weeks ago about the spelling bee. I really do find it compelling TV, and think it would be neat to try to televize other feats of academic achievement.

Then again, I thought that tivoing a Buck Rogers in the 25th Century marathon was a good idea. I can guarantee that most of those episodes are going to be deleted without being watched. I thought I’d get things off on the right foot by watching the episode where Gary Coleman guest stars as a boy genius cryogenically frozen in the 20th century and awoken in the 25th to become the president of a planet. Although it was a whimsical notion, the uninspired plot and bare-bones budget really killed most of the enjoyment. It’s not quite bad enough to fall into the “so bad it’s good” category, a la “Manos:” The Hands of Fate or anything by Ed Wood.

There is some funny stuff, though. The headquarters of the Earth Defense Directorate, apparently, are in the 1-bedroom apartment of Dr. Elias Huer. Seriously–you never see any kind of control room, or galactic senate–just a viewscreen in his room. And the wedding celebrations for Princess Ardala (who has a tantalizing array of metal bikinis, at least) and Buck featured entertainment by a quarter of roller skaters! It definitely dates the action to the late 1970s, in an almost endearing way.

All this is just my roundabout way of saying that I’m acutely aware that my taste in TV might not be for everyone, so I doubt that we’ll be seeing History 101 final exams broadcast on ESPN2 anytime soon.